El Niño to raise Estonia’s food prices and winter temperatures

El Niño is expected to raise food prices and bring a warmer winter to Estonia, while its effects could begin appearing by the end of 2026, ERR reported, citing Tartu University climate physics professor Velle Toll.

El Niño is a large-scale natural climate fluctuation caused by warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Toll said it shifts weather patterns worldwide, bringing heavy rainfall and floods to some tropical regions and droughts to others.

The current El Niño is already exceptionally strong. Toll said only one previous event was stronger at its peak, while forecasts indicate that the developing event will clearly surpass that record.

Its strongest effects will be felt in the tropics, but atmospheric circulation will carry indirect impacts to Europe and Estonia. These are expected to include higher food prices, effects on the global economy and a warmer winter, Toll said.

Prices for commodities including coffee, cocoa, cereals, rice, maize, wheat and sugar are expected to rise on world markets. That would push up food prices in Estonia and increase the cost of other products as well.

Toll said the possible decline of regional economies in tropical areas facing the threat of famine could also affect the global economy. Previous El Niño events have shown that their socioeconomic effects can continue even after the climate phenomenon has ended.

Some regions could benefit from the changed conditions, including in food production, but Toll said the number of losers was likely to be much greater.

He said 2027 would probably be exceptionally hot, while the strength of the current El Niño could make the end of 2026 record-warm.