Luik says Putin still has weapons options to escalate

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin does not currently want substantive negotiations with Ukraine and is prepared to escalate further, Ambassador Jüri Luik said on ERR’s Ukraine Studio programme.

Luik said Ukraine’s successful deep strikes had impressed US President Donald Trump and raised hopes of restarting the peace process. He said Trump’s recent meetings with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had sent largely positive signals to Ukraine.

“In Ankara and now in Washington, Trump has emphasised US support and understanding of what the Ukrainians are doing,” Luik said. He noted that Trump had described Ukraine’s attacks on Russia as an escalation that could lead to peace, despite concerns from several administration officials, particularly the US State Department.

According to Luik, Trump’s changing position reflects his view that the strength of the two warring sides has become more balanced, which could help create conditions for a peace process.

“We can debate the real military or psychological effect of these deep strikes. Perhaps we are overestimating it somewhat, but from Trump’s point of view it is nevertheless very good that the Ukrainians now have some cards,” Luik said.

He said a planned visit to Ukraine by US negotiators Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner would be symbolically important in demonstrating the negotiators’ neutrality.

“From the Russian side, I see absolutely no interest in any kind of negotiations, except negotiations over Ukraine’s surrender. But if we are talking about serious, substantive negotiations, President Putin certainly does not want them,” Luik said.

“I believe that from Putin’s point of view, his weapons are far from exhausted. He is prepared to go much further and through several rounds of escalation before there is even the slightest chance of negotiations,” he added.

Graham sanctions bill carries significant political weight

Luik said the administration of President Donald Trump had been much bolder and more determined than that of former President Joe Biden, even though US Secretary of State Marco Rubio had warned of the risk of escalation.

“For the previous administration, the risks of escalation effectively paralysed its support for the Ukrainians when it came to bombing Russia. For Biden, this was a complete red line,” Luik said.

He also highlighted a new Russia sanctions bill led by former Senator Lindsey Graham, which has now won support in the US Senate.

Luik said the bill was important politically and symbolically because it would allow so-called secondary sanctions. These could target countries that trade with Russia and buy, for example, cheap Russian oil, potentially including China and India.

However, he said the bill was not yet certain to pass Congress because many different forces remained sceptical of it for various reasons.