Green transition creates winners and losers within the same industries

The European Union’s green transition creates both winners and losers within the same industries, with companies’ ability to invest and access to capital often shaping the outcome, according to a University of Tartu literature review reported by ERR.

The EU aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions, material use and pollution, and to preserve biodiversity while maintaining economic competitiveness. These goals directly affect businesses across sectors in Europe and Estonia. But as of 2026, academic research on the economic effects of the European Green Deal remains limited.

The review is part of a University of Tartu project funded by Estonia’s Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications. The project examines what the green transition means for businesses in different fields, combining a review of academic research with statistical analysis of Estonian company data and interviews with business owners.

The literature review was prepared as part of Brigita-Veronika Pähna’s master’s thesis, supervised by Annela Anger-Kraavi. It analysed research articles published from 2019 to 2025 and is, to the authors’ knowledge, the first attempt to provide a comprehensive overview of the Green Deal’s effects on businesses based on academic literature.

Existing research focuses mainly on the primary sector, energy-intensive manufacturing, transport, and activities related to the circular economy and waste management. These are among the sectors most directly affected by environmental policy. Most studies use economic models to examine future effects, while research into impacts already experienced by businesses is scarce.

The review found that the effects are more complex than a division between sectors that gain and sectors that lose. Both can be found within the same industry, as the transition brings new opportunities as well as higher costs and prices.

Negative effects, such as more expensive production inputs or lower output in some sectors, are often felt immediately. Benefits tend to emerge over a longer period: investments in building renovations or new production processes may take decades to pay off.

The transition is also creating jobs in areas such as the circular economy and renovation. However, a shortage of the necessary skills makes it harder to move workers from sectors dependent on fossil fuels into those fields.