Centre Party and Social Democrats overtake Isamaa in October ratings

The Centre Party and the Social Democratic Party narrowly overtook Isamaa in Estonian party ratings in October, according to a poll reported by ERR. The Centre Party received 20.6% support and the Social Democrats 20.4%, while Isamaa fell to third place with 19.4%.

The Centre Party’s support rose 3.7 percentage points from September, ending a three-month decline. The Social Democrats gained 3 points, reaching their highest level this year. Isamaa dropped 4.7 points, its lowest rating in three years.

Emor polling expert Aivar Voog said the parties’ positions could not be distinguished with certainty given the survey’s margin of error. He said the large monthly shifts might be temporary and should be assessed against results in the coming months.

Isamaa lost support among younger age groups, while its position was more stable among respondents aged 65 and over. The Social Democrats, already the most popular party among people under 35, also became the leading choice among those aged 35 to 49 in October.

The Reform Party and the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia (EKRE) were effectively tied in fourth and fifth place, with 14.2% and 13.8%, respectively. The Right-wingers party came sixth, dropping from 9.6% in September to 6.5%.

Support for the remaining parties was below the electoral threshold. Eesti 200 received 1.5%, less than the Koos party at 1.7%. The Greens had 0.8%, while the Estonian Nationalists and Conservatives received 0.7%.

The share of respondents without a party preference fell from 30% in September to 27% in October. Support for the governing coalition remained at about 16%, while the combined support for opposition parties rose from 71% to 74%.

Support by respondent group

Among ethnic Estonian respondents, the Social Democrats led with 23.9%, followed by Isamaa at 23.2%, the Reform Party at 16.6%, EKRE at 15.4%, the Centre Party at 9.5% and the Right-wingers at 7.9%. Eesti 200 received 1.9% in this group.

Among respondents of other ethnicities, the Centre Party was far ahead with 62.9%. Koos received 8%, EKRE 7.9% and the Social Democrats 7.2%; all other parties were below 10%.

In Tallinn, the Centre Party led with 31.7%, followed by the Social Democrats at 26.3% and the Reform Party at 14.5%. Isamaa, which holds the city’s mayoral post, received 10.5%, EKRE 7% and the Right-wingers 4.5%. The Centre Party also led in Ida-Viru County, with 46.3%.

The Social Democrats remained the most popular choice among respondents aged 18 to 24 and 25 to 34, and also led among those aged 35 to 49 in October. Isamaa was the leading choice among people aged 65 to 75 and those aged 75 and over, while the Centre Party led among 50- to 64-year-olds.

Emor surveyed 1,487 voting-age citizens across Estonia by phone and online from October 12 to 21. The maximum possible margin of error for this sample is 2.1 percentage points. When respondents without a party preference are included, support was 15.5% for the Centre Party, 15.4% for the Social Democrats, 13.3% for Isamaa, 10.6% for the Reform Party, 8.7% for EKRE and 5% for the Right-wingers.