Experienced scientists make fewer breakthroughs, but their discoveries last longer

Experienced researchers are less likely than younger colleagues to overturn established knowledge, but their breakthroughs are more likely to endure, an analysis by Chinese researchers has found, ERR reports.

The researchers examined the careers of more than 206,000 scientists, using the SciSciNet dataset to analyse more than 11 million scientific papers. They tracked how scientists’ ability to make lasting breakthroughs changed over the course of their careers.

The study defines a lasting breakthrough as research that overturns earlier understanding and becomes the basis for a new line of inquiry. Later researchers cite the breakthrough while setting aside older sources, and the discovery does not quickly fade from view.

Previous research has found that ideas capable of shaking up a field are more common in the work of younger scientists, but become less frequent as careers progress. The likelihood of making a lasting breakthrough, however, rises with experience, which the study’s authors attribute to skills developed over time.

The pattern held in medicine, sociology, physics, biology and chemistry, where more experienced researchers were increasingly able to establish their discoveries. Mathematics and computer science showed the opposite trend: the likelihood of a lasting breakthrough declined over the course of a career.

The number of papers a scientist had previously published was a key factor, the researchers said. Scientists with more published work were more likely to see new discoveries endure, and more productive researchers were better able to establish new directions even when compared at the same career stage. The gap between more and less productive authors widened over time.

Experienced researchers’ work also attracted more attention. When breakthroughs were of a similar level, papers by older researchers later received more citations, were discussed more often on social media and won more large research grants. The authors said these advantages helped discoveries last.

The team also analysed the careers of 362 Nobel laureates. Future laureates published groundbreaking work early in their careers, but their main, prize-winning discovery came years later.

The authors concluded that experience helps scientists embed their ideas in the research community, making groundbreaking papers more durable. Experienced scientists do not necessarily publish more disruptive work.