Latvian president warns Russia will escalate sabotage operations

Russia is likely to escalate sabotage, espionage, disinformation and terrorist threats this winter, but a large-scale conventional invasion of NATO or European Union territory is currently not possible, Latvian President Edgars Rinkēvičs said on Friday, according to LSM.

Rinkēvičs said Russia-inspired acts of sabotage, espionage and diversion against the infrastructure and companies of countries supporting Ukraine were already increasing. He cited a drone incident in Leipzig and the shooting of a train near the Ukrainian-Polish border, among other cases, and said similar activity was also being observed in Latvia.

“Further escalation is highly possible,” the president said. He added that Russia wanted to use the winter to make gains in Ukraine, intimidate its supporters and weaken, or ideally split, NATO and the EU.

Security agencies in Latvia and its allied countries were cooperating and exchanging information, Rinkēvičs said. Several successful operations had already prevented or neutralised activity by, or led to the capture of, spies, saboteurs and those involved in diversions. However, he said no one could provide a 100 percent guarantee that hostile actions would be prevented.

Rinkēvičs said current facts indicated that Russia did not have enough forces concentrated for a large-scale conventional invasion of NATO or EU territory. However, he warned that other forms of activity were already increasing and would continue to do so.

“Russia’s rhetoric and historical experience show that Russia will continue to escalate. If the allies do not stop it through clear action, the risks and threat will become more dangerous,” he said.

The president also called for sabotage, terrorist attacks and diversions to be treated as threats rather than being described as hybrid threats, saying that such a change in doctrine would help mobilise allied support.

He said NATO had successfully strengthened the security of Baltic Sea infrastructure and airspace defence, and that further work was needed on an additional “threat watch”. Rinkēvičs also said the possibility of a small Russian special forces incursion into allied territory, followed by the invocation of NATO’s Article 5, was being taken seriously.