NATO Article 5 threshold remains unclear, Matulionis says

Presidential chief adviser Deividas Matulionis says the threat of a direct military invasion is currently almost zero, but the risk of sabotage and subversive attacks remains elevated, LRT reported.

Speaking on the LRT programme Dienos tema, Matulionis said recent attacks had increased but were not new. He described them as attempts to intimidate countries and limit their ability to provide military support to Ukraine.

His comments followed Germany’s attribution of explosive attacks in Leipzig to Russia and the European Union’s reference to state-sponsored terrorism. Asked how such attacks differed from a direct Russian attack on a NATO member, Matulionis said they did not amount to a direct invasion of NATO territory.

He said NATO countries had discussed ways to strengthen their joint response, including broader intelligence-sharing between different agencies and closer cooperation with law enforcement authorities. He also mentioned possible further restrictions on issuing visas to Russian citizens, saying Lithuania would support such measures, although there was not yet unanimous backing.

Asked where the threshold for activating NATO’s Article 5 collective-defence clause lay, Matulionis said the boundary was very unclear.

He said serious damage to critical infrastructure or casualties could lead affected countries to request Article 5 activation. In that case, the readiness of NATO members’ armed forces would be raised and additional measures could be taken to protect critical infrastructure, including possible measures at the border.

However, Matulionis said countries did not currently consider the attacks sufficient grounds for Article 5, and it was difficult to say when the clause would be activated.

He said a direct military invasion, even on a limited scale, would clearly constitute an Article 5 situation. The affected country would submit a request, and the clause would be declared immediately under the Washington Treaty, he said.

Asked whether the deaths of one or more NATO soldiers would automatically trigger Article 5, Matulionis said the response would depend on the decision of the affected country.

In the case of Lithuania, he said, the first step would be for the country to appeal to the NATO secretary general. The North Atlantic Council would then be convened urgently to make a decision. Matulionis added that concerns about escalation remained a factor and that the question was largely theoretical.