Poll puts Madise first in Estonia’s presidential race

Nearly one-third of respondents with an opinion supported electing Estonia’s chancellor of justice, Ülle Madise, as the country’s next president in an early-August poll commissioned by Delfi and conducted by Turu-uuringute AS, ERR reported.

Madise was preferred by 32 percent of respondents who chose a candidate. Mart Helme, the candidate of the Estonian Conservative People’s Party, or EKRE, came second with 11 percent. All other named candidates received less than 10 percent.

Hannes Hanso was supported by 9 percent, Jüri Luik by 8 percent, Indrek Neivelt by 7 percent, Jonatan Vseviov by 5 percent, Maive Rute by 3 percent, Matti Maasikas by 2 percent and Indrek Laul by 1 percent. Another 22 percent selected “another candidate”. Delfi noted that Tallinn University of Technology rector Tiit Land had not yet been proposed as a possible candidate when the survey was conducted.

Delfi cautioned that Madise could not yet be described as a strong public favourite. Including respondents who answered “cannot say”, her support was 22 percent of all respondents, meaning 78 percent did not name her as their preferred candidate.

Uncertainty was considerably higher among respondents whose main language of communication was not Estonian. While 22.8 percent of Estonian-language respondents answered “cannot say”, the share among respondents with another communication language was 59.9 percent. By nationality, 21.7 percent of ethnic Estonians did not name a candidate, compared with 61.7 percent of citizens of other nationalities.

Ida-Viru County stood out geographically, with 50.7 percent of respondents unable to name a candidate. The corresponding figures were 23.2 percent in southern Estonia, 22.5 percent in western Estonia, 26.3 percent in central Estonia and 31.2 percent in northern Estonia.

Madise’s support was highest among Social Democratic Party supporters, at 49.9 percent, followed by supporters of Parempoolsed at 46.6 percent, the Reform Party at 45.6 percent and Isamaa at 38.7 percent. Among Centre Party supporters, 23.3 percent backed Madise, while 38.9 percent selected “another candidate”.

Among EKRE supporters, Madise received 9.5 percent support and Helme 65.3 percent. The share answering “cannot say” was 44.1 percent among Centre Party supporters, compared with 18.5 percent among Social Democratic Party supporters, 18.4 percent among Isamaa supporters, 14.7 percent among EKRE supporters, 11.7 percent among Reform Party supporters and 5.1 percent among Parempoolsed supporters.

Turu-uuringute AS conducted the survey for Delfi from August 6 to 12. It received responses from 902 adult Estonian citizens.