Lithuania faces uphill battle to normalise China ties in six months

Lithuanian politicians aim to normalise relations with China within the next six months, a goal set for Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys, LRT.lt reports.

However, experts warn that such a timeline is unrealistic, comparing it to “looking for matches in winter.” Historical attempts by other countries to restore ties with Beijing after crises have often required significant concessions and taken far longer.

Norway and South Korea faced the steepest demands when seeking to reset relations with China, while larger nations like Australia and Canada made fewer compromises. Yet the reasons for their disputes with Beijing were far less sensitive than Lithuania’s.

Lithuania’s case is unique because it directly touched on Taiwan, a highly sensitive issue for China. The opening of the Taiwanese representative office in Vilnius in 2021, named the “Taiwanese Representative Office in Lithuania” in English and the “Taiwan Representative Office in Lithuania” in Chinese, was seen as a direct challenge to Beijing’s “One China” principle. Other Western nations typically use the name “Taipei” for such offices to avoid implying diplomatic recognition.

“Our case is exceptional because of the Taiwan issue, which is China’s absolute red line. China was willing to go to the maximum, including secondary sanctions. This is a unique case where China applied maximum pressure because the problem mattered far more to them than other issues that strained relations with Canada, Australia, Norway, or South Korea,” said Tomas Janeliūnas, a professor at Vilnius University’s Institute of International Relations and Political Science.

Vida Mačikėnaitė-Ambutavičienė, a lecturer at International Christian University in Japan, added: “The importance of the Taiwan issue to China is far greater than others. While China also dislikes statements from other countries on human rights in Tibet, Xinjiang, or Uyghur issues, the Taiwan issue is the most critical. Strategically, it is the first island chain. This is a Cold War term, a line that separates China and where the US could seek to contain China. Therefore, Taiwan’s importance is strategic for China. If China controls Taiwan, it has access to the Pacific Ocean, which is why China reacts so sensitively to the Taiwan issue.”

Lithuania currently has limited options. One is to negotiate a name change for the Taiwanese office in Vilnius with Taiwan itself, but Taiwan has little incentive to agree. The alternative—closing the office unilaterally—would be an unprecedented move and severely damage Lithuania’s reputation.

Experts suggest Lithuania’s push for rapid normalisation may stem from its upcoming presidency of the EU Council, but the path forward remains uncertain.