Russian interest in Lithuania may extend to a depopulated territory, historian warns

A Lithuanian military historian has said that Russia’s failure to subdue Ukraine and Lithuania through ideological control could lead to a more extreme approach—seeking the Baltic state’s territory without its population.

Karolis Zikaras, an analyst at Lithuania’s Strategic Communications Department, told LRT.lt that Russia’s inability to “re-educate” Lithuanians—viewed in Moscow as irredeemably hostile—may push the Kremlin toward a scenario where it pursues Lithuanian land but not its people.

“Throughout our history under Russian occupation, we have always destabilised them because we are culturally different,” Zikaras said. “We have always been the beginning of their downfall. They may now be realising this and might no longer want to waste effort brainwashing or re-educating us. Their actions in Ukraine suggest they may want our territory—but without the inhabitants, because those inhabitants are ‘Nazis’ and beyond saving.”

His comments follow documented Russian atrocities in occupied Ukrainian cities such as Bucha and Irpin, where mass graves revealed civilians shot at close range, bound, and bearing signs of torture—burns, broken bones, and beaten teeth. Survivors in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia reported starvation, beatings, sexual violence, and systemic terror under Russian control.

Zikaras noted that such tactics aim to break societal resistance by inflicting suffering severe enough to force political or military surrender—a strategy historically employed in World War II, culminating in Japan’s capitulation after the 1945 atomic bombings.

The shift has reshaped NATO’s defence planning for frontline states, reinforcing the principle that no territorial concessions can be made to Russia without risking civilian massacres, he added.

Lithuania’s occupation history—from 18th-century incorporation into the Russian Empire to Soviet-era mass deportations—shows Moscow’s treatment of civilians hardening over time, Zikaras argued. While early Russian rule focused on imposing Orthodoxy and Cyrillic script, Soviet repressions in 1940 and 1944 targeted not just elites but even the property-less, marking a turn toward collective punishment.

“The year 2022 was a major revelation, even militarily,” he said. “Our leadership and defence experts now understand that giving Russia even a centimetre of territory could mean finding only piles of corpses there later.”