Oidsalu warns Estonia’s defence plan risks costly overreach

Estonian defence expert Meelis Oidsalu says the country’s new defence development plan risks becoming an overambitious list of projects that Estonia cannot afford to sustain. He told ERR that the plan could give each branch of the armed forces a “shiny present” without sufficient regard for long-term costs.

Oidsalu said he was concerned the continually expanded plan could become a patchwork of promises, particularly ahead of elections. He cited possible 90-metre ships for the Navy, missile defence or aircraft for the Air Force, and increased firepower for the Army.

If Estonia builds capabilities it cannot fully develop or maintain, resources could be diverted from more immediate needs, Oidsalu said. He pointed to ammunition stocks as one way to increase the number of days the military could fight.

Defence Minister Martin Herem said on Tuesday that the threat from Russia could grow if the war in Ukraine ends, meaning Estonia must develop some capabilities quickly and accept the risk that maintaining them could later prove difficult. He later clarified that he did not believe Estonia would acquire capabilities it could not afford to maintain.

Oidsalu said Estonia lacked experience with the costs of some planned capabilities, including large naval vessels and missile defence. He said costs often exceed forecasts and called for a long-term assessment of whether the country could afford to put these capabilities into operation.

He also said the armed forces’ view of Estonia’s defence needs had shifted during the year. While that could be understandable, he said the process should not be repeated indefinitely, warning that election-season plans could include high-profile capabilities without enough resources for their long-term use.