Eroding trust can open the way for Russian propaganda

Russian propaganda can gain ground by making people doubt whether anyone can be trusted, rather than by persuading them that Russia is right, University of Tartu junior researcher Uku Kangur writes in an opinion article for ERR.

Kangur says a central aim of Russian influence efforts is to undermine trust. When messages from governments, the media and experts are seen as equally suspect, it becomes harder to distinguish facts from misleading information. Susceptibility to propaganda, he argues, is therefore also a question of society’s resilience.

Kangur and colleagues from the universities of Tartu, Latvia and Vilnius surveyed 1,218 people in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania to examine what is associated with belief in Russian propaganda narratives.

Measuring susceptibility

The researchers did not ask participants whether they supported Russia or trusted official Kremlin channels. Instead, they presented 20 statements representing 10 Russian propaganda narratives circulating in the Baltic information space, and measured how far participants agreed with them.

Examples included claims that NATO expansion triggered the war in Ukraine, that leaving the Soviet Union brought the Baltic states only economic and demographic decline, that defence spending serves foreign interests, and that Western countries are in moral decline.

The measure reflected participants’ willingness to accept the narratives’ main messages, not their ability to identify propaganda channels. Kangur says a message may seem credible because it fits a person’s local grievances, uncertainty or existing beliefs, even before they check its source or accuracy.

Susceptibility is shaped by the interaction of beliefs, emotions, a sense of belonging and the information environment, he writes. It is not simply a lack of knowledge or an inborn trait.

Trust mattered more than platform use

The findings suggested that trust was more important than which platforms people used. Using Telegram, Odnoklassniki or VKontakte did not by itself indicate greater susceptibility. A clearer link appeared when people considered information from those platforms trustworthy.