UN report warns climate pledges leave 1.5C target out of reach

Global temperatures are expected to reach at least 1.7 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by mid-century, while current policies put the world on course for 2.6 to 2.8 degrees of warming this century, according to a UN climate report covered by ERR.

The UN Environment Programme assessed countries’ climate pledges and actual emissions, examining whether global warming can be kept below the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees for an extended period. Because earlier modelling was outdated, researchers analysed current policies and developed new scenarios.

Researchers dropped the previous 1.5-degree scenario because it would have required rapid decisions years ago. A new model that assumes strict emissions cuts begin in 2025 projects warming will peak at about 1.7 to 1.8 degrees before gradually declining.

If current policies continue, there is a 10 percent chance warming will exceed 3.4 degrees, which the researchers said would be catastrophic. Even if countries meet all their existing emissions-cutting pledges, the report projects warming of 2.1 degrees.

Pledges fall short of what is needed

Although countries made new climate pledges over the past year, they are not enough to prevent the worst outcomes, the report says. New plans from two-thirds of countries would reduce emissions by only 11 to 15 percent by 2035, leaving a gap of more than 16 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent between pledges and what is needed.

To keep warming within a safe range, emissions must fall by at least 45 percent by 2035 compared with 2025 levels, and by 69 percent by 2040, according to the report. Each year of delay increases reliance on future technologies to remove vast amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

The report focused mainly on major economies. G20 countries account for 76 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, and emissions in many high-emitting countries are still rising.

Renewable energy grows faster than expected

The report also noted that renewable energy has gained a larger share of countries’ energy supplies faster than expected in recent years. Solar and wind power capacity grew three times faster than models from the previous decade had projected.