Luik doubts Trump, Putin and Xi can shape a new world order

Diplomat Jüri Luik said a possible meeting between the leaders of the United States, Russia and China would not have the power to establish a new world order. He made the remarks in an interview on ERR’s “Esimene stuudio” programme.

Asked why the United States appears to overlook Russian President Vladimir Putin’s support for Iran and the sharing of intelligence with Tehran, Luik said the reason was difficult to determine. He suggested it could reflect President Donald Trump’s personal view of how international affairs work. Trump has argued that the US provides Ukraine with information, coordinates and weapons, and questioned why he should then criticise Russia over Iran, Luik said.

Luik added that US officials had privately and behind the scenes repeatedly signalled that Russian support for Iran should stop. He said the issue could also be linked to wider cooperation between Iran and China. Information about US bases in several Arab countries may have been passed through Iran-China cooperation, he said.

Trump has proposed meeting Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping in China to discuss Ukraine. Luik said that if the meeting takes place, it would likely be a major spectacle that all three leaders would enjoy, but he doubted it would produce an agreement defining a new world order.

Luik said Trump had indicated he wanted to discuss preventing the spread of nuclear weapons at such a meeting. The US has long believed that nuclear issues cannot be discussed with Russia alone, he said. Although China’s nuclear arsenal is currently much smaller than Russia’s, Luik said the balance could be reversed in a decade.

The US would like China to accept multilateral limits on its nuclear weapons, Luik said. China has argued that its arsenal is too small for it to take part in such discussions. He said Beijing might not be interested in a meeting if Washington insists on discussing nuclear arms control.

As for Ukraine, Luik said it was unclear what the three leaders could discuss. He also said he did not know the details of a possible new US peace proposal, but public information pointed to several agreements under consideration, including arrangements for Ukraine’s economic reconstruction and the difficult question of territory.

Security guarantees from European countries and the United States are especially important to Ukraine, Luik said. US officials have described the possible guarantees as similar to Article 5 commitments. Luik said preventing a future conflict, war or invasion was as important as resolving the current one.

Luik said around four or five agreements may be involved, and that discussions are taking place within a very small group.