Providus identifies five-percent threshold as key election uncertainty

The main uncertainty in Latvia’s 15th Saeima election is which parties will clear the five-percent threshold, not which party will win, according to an analysis by the think tank Providus reported by LSM. The results could affect both the distribution of seats and the options for forming the next government.

The analysis is not a forecast. It sets out seven data-based scenarios that vary assumptions about polling accuracy, voter turnout, fluctuations in party support and political “red lines” after the election. Providus used September polls by SKDS and Latvijas Fakti, historical polling accuracy, early voting data and Saeima election results dating back to 1993.

For each scenario, the researchers ran thousands of simulations to estimate possible seat distributions and assess which coalitions might be able to secure a parliamentary majority.

The base scenario puts the United List in first place, with a median estimate of about 28 seats. The greatest uncertainty concerns New Unity, the Union of Greens and Farmers and For Stability!, whose support is close to the five-percent threshold.

Their results could determine whether six, seven or eight parties enter the Saeima, how many votes go to parties that fail to cross the threshold, and how many extra seats the largest party gains. They could also affect whether a coalition resembling the current government is possible and whether a government would need three, four or more partners.

In the base scenario, New Unity crosses the threshold in 67 percent of simulations, the Union of Greens and Farmers in 63 percent, and For Stability! in about one in four. Providus cautions that single-number estimates of seats can give a misleading impression of precision: a small shift in support around the threshold can change the distribution of several seats.