Analysts forecast turbulent run-up to Estonia’s parliamentary elections

Estonia’s political season has begun turbulently, with a presidential election, a failed artillery shell procurement, ministerial changes and opposition threats to bring down the government, ERR’s Aktuaalne kaamera reported.

Political scientist Mari-Liis Jakobson said both the coalition and opposition were preparing for the parliamentary elections, using various tactics to test campaign messages and put pressure on one another.

Less than six months remain until the elections. Former politician Kadri Simson said campaigns had started in January in previous election cycles, but the government’s low popularity and the opposition’s stronger support had made this campaign exceptionally long.

At the end of August, parties represented in parliament reached an agreement and elected Ülle Madise president with 71 votes. Simson said the cooperation could continue at least through the autumn, describing the agreement among four parties as a sign that Estonian parties could cooperate on difficult issues without seeking an immediate personal benefit.

Political scientist Tõnis Saarts disagreed, saying the consensus had been tied to a specific moment involving a strong candidate. He said alternative scenarios, including an election by the electoral college, would not have benefited the parties. Isamaa made pragmatic choices, he added, while potential opponents failed to mobilise at the decisive moment.

The Reform Party is continuing with new ministers. Saarts said the failed shell procurement had damaged trust in the party’s competence in defence, one of its key policy areas. He described the appointment of Martin Herem as defence minister as an effective public-relations move intended to show that the party had recognised the problems and brought in a leading Estonian specialist to resolve them.

Simson said the Reform Party was one of the most experienced parties in political strategy. She said it had previously gained from refreshing its image before elections, usually by changing a coalition partner. This time, however, that approach had not worked because no party was prepared to replace the departing Social Democrats in the government, so the renewal was taking place on a smaller scale.

The opposition has spoken for some time about snap elections and a no-confidence motion against the prime minister. Saarts said the opposition wanted to end the Reform Party’s dominant position quickly, but that a government collapse in its current form was technically very unlikely.