Raik rejects parallels between Ukraine in 2021 and the Baltics today

Kristi Raik, director of the International Centre for Defence and Security, said the recent Moscow visit by CIA Director John Ratcliffe should not be compared with his predecessor’s visit in 2021, a few months before Russia launched its full-scale war against Ukraine, ERR reported.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that Ratcliffe visited Moscow to warn Russia against attacking NATO. Politico reported that he also warned Moscow against escalation directed at the Baltic states.

Raik said there was no intelligence indicating that Russia was preparing an attack now, unlike in 2021. “There is no basis for drawing parallels between the end of 2021 in Ukraine and the current situation of the Baltic states. At the end of 2021, there was clear intelligence showing that Russia was preparing for an invasion. There is currently no evidence that Russia is preparing to invade the Baltic states,” she wrote on social media.

That does not mean Russia is not seeking to raise tensions in an effort to persuade Western countries to stop supporting Ukraine, Raik said. She referred to autumn 2022, when Ukrainian counteroffensives liberated significant areas in the Kharkiv and Kherson regions and Ukraine gained the strategic initiative, prompting Russia to issue forceful threats.

“The most important point is that both in autumn 2022 and now, Russia is threatening escalation, including the use of nuclear weapons, partly through ‘leaks’ to the Western media. Western countries should not fall into this trap again or allow fear of escalation to limit their support for Ukraine,” Raik wrote.

Russia is certainly seeking opportunities for escalation, as it did in autumn 2022 when the situation became desperate for it, Raik said. She described this as the context for the CIA director’s visit to Moscow and said Russia had already escalated tensions with sabotage operations and influence campaigns targeting NATO countries.

Raik noted one important difference: in 2022, intelligence reportedly indicated that Russia was preparing for possible use of nuclear weapons. There are no such reports now, she said, describing the current threats as psychological pressure and verbal intimidation intended to exploit Western fears.

Despite this, the possibility of a future invasion must be taken seriously and deterrence must remain strong, Raik said. Russia’s current attacks are aimed at stopping Western support for Ukraine, while continued support for Ukraine remains vital to Europe’s interests, she added.