Ilves rejects anonymous reports of imminent Russian attack

Former Estonian President Toomas Hendrik Ilves has criticised reports based on anonymous sources claiming that Russia may soon attack the Baltic states, ERR reported. He said the threat assessment for the region had not changed and suggested that a recent visit to Moscow by CIA Director John Ratcliffe was more likely linked to Iran.

Sources familiar with Ratcliffe’s visit told The Wall Street Journal that he travelled to Moscow to warn Russia against attacking NATO. Politico reported that the CIA director had warned Moscow against escalation involving the Baltic states.

Ilves questioned the reports, saying that the claims concerning the Baltic states came from an anonymous official and could be checked in the coming days.

“If you look at what the biggest problem for the United States is right now, it is Iran, where the Russians have been very active and are providing intelligence to Iran,” Ilves told ERR radio news. “If the CIA director flies to Moscow for the first time in more than five years, the more logical explanation seems to be concern about Iran. The threat assessment for the Baltic states has not changed.”

Politico cited an anonymous source familiar with the visit as saying that its main purpose was to warn Russia against any escalating measures against the Baltic states. The report also said Russia had issued a series of threats in recent weeks against NATO countries supporting Ukraine, raising concerns that Moscow could use new aggressive hybrid measures or limited military action against NATO allies.

Ilves also pointed to meetings scheduled for Thursday and Friday between US Defense Department policy director Elbridge Colby, NATO Secretary General and ambassadors from member states. He said those meetings could provide further indications of US policy.

“If the United States were now concerned about European security, it would represent a major change in the current administration’s policy,” Ilves said. He suggested that references to the Baltic states could instead be a cover for US concerns elsewhere.

Ilves said journalists publish such reports because they are exciting and attract clicks, while the subject remains distant enough not to directly affect their audiences.

The last CIA director to visit Moscow was Bill Burns, who travelled there in November 2021 and warned Russian President Vladimir Putin against invading Ukraine. Russia nevertheless launched a full-scale war against Ukraine on February 24, 2022.