Isamaa backing makes Madise presidential election frontrunner

Support from the Isamaa party has made Chancellor of Justice Ülle Madise the frontrunner in Estonia’s presidential election, ERR reported. Even if she loses some votes in the secret ballot, four parties together currently have enough support to elect her in the Riigikogu’s first round on September 2.

On Thursday, 62 members of the Riigikogu, Estonia’s parliament, from the governing Reform Party and Estonia 200, as well as the opposition Social Democratic Party, signed in support of Madise’s nomination.

On Tuesday, Reform Party member Mart Võrklaev, who had initially been undecided, said meetings with Madise had convinced him to support both her nomination and her candidacy in the September 2 vote. This brought her expected support to 63 votes.

After several hours of discussion on Tuesday evening, Isamaa announced that it would also support Madise. The party’s parliamentary group has eight members, while three additional lawmakers have joined the party, giving it 11 votes in the Riigikogu.

Based on those figures, Madise could have 74 votes. A candidate needs at least 68 votes to be elected president.

Some unaffiliated lawmakers who have not clearly stated their preference could also support Madise. Social Democrat Züleyxa Izmailova has not announced her final decision. She told ERR on Tuesday evening that she would not sign in support of Madise or any other candidate’s nomination, but it is not known how she will vote on September 2.

It is also unclear how lawmakers who wanted to support Tiit Land will vote if he fails to secure enough nominations. One or two votes could potentially come to Madise from that group.

However, the election will be conducted by secret ballot, and signatures on nomination papers do not constitute binding commitments. “Each member of the Riigikogu ultimately chooses the president themselves, according to their conscience, in a secret ballot, rather than a particular parliamentary group choosing for them,” Võrklaev said on Tuesday.

Earlier on Tuesday, some of Madise’s supporters expressed concern that Reform Party votes might not hold. They pointed to the possibility that lawmakers could leave the party and join Isamaa in the autumn, potentially taking their votes away from Madise in the secret ballot. Isamaa’s decision to support her has significantly reduced that concern.

Previous presidents elected by parliament

In 1992, Lennart Meri was elected with 59 votes. Under the rules in force at the time, the Riigikogu elected the president if no candidate won more than half of the votes cast in a popular election. Meri received 59 votes and Arnold Rüütel 31, with 59 votes sufficient for election.

Under the presidential election procedure introduced in 1996, the Riigikogu failed to elect a president in 1996, 2001 and 2006. The decision was then made by an electoral college consisting of members of the Riigikogu and representatives of local government councils.

In 2011, Toomas Hendrik Ilves was re-elected with 73 votes, defeating Indrek Tarand, who received 25. In 2016, Kersti Kaljulaid was elected with 81 votes.