Bartkus warns low birth rate will undermine Lithuania’s military

Lithuania will not be able to assemble adequate military forces if its birth rate remains at current levels, Vilnius University economist Algirdas Bartkus told LRT.

Speaking on the LRT television programme “Dienos tema”, Bartkus said Lithuania’s birth rate had fallen by 7.2 percent in the first half of this year compared with the same period last year. The total fertility rate was 1.04 last year and is expected to reach 0.97 this year.

According to Bartkus, a fertility rate below 2.1 leads to population decline, while a rate below one means each successive generation is twice as small as the previous one. He described the trend as “demographic self-elimination”.

“The consequences for the economy are crushing,” Bartkus said, noting that the number of children born had fallen by about 42 percent compared with 10 years ago. Over the same period, the number of obstetric beds declined by 43 percent.

He said the effects of declining births first reach maternity departments. After four to eight years, the impact is felt in kindergartens, followed by the shrinking school network. Universities face a crisis after 15 to 20 years, while the consequences for military recruitment emerge after 18 to 25 years.

“With such a birth rate, we will not assemble adequate military forces,” Bartkus said, adding that the issue needed to be assessed comprehensively.

Dainius Dundulis, the owner of the Norfa retail chain, said the government should consult young people directly about why they are not having children. He argued that Lithuania lacked adequate infrastructure for families, citing problems with education, kindergartens and healthcare in major cities.

Bartkus said the causes extended beyond money and childcare infrastructure. He linked the decline to broader social trends, including individualism, hedonism, the pursuit of status and consumerism, which encourage people to prioritise career success and financial security before having children.

The discussion followed criticism of measures proposed by the previous government and a pledge by Prime Minister Mindaugas Sinkevičius’s government to take a different approach to demographic policy and encourage people to have children.