Jüristo says Isamaa is letting rivals pass it by

Political analyst Tarmo Jüristo says he is puzzled by Isamaa’s response as the party loses support in opinion polls and falls behind the Centre Party. ERR reported that Jüristo described Isamaa as appearing to be in a state of “lethargic sleep”.

Isamaa had led party rankings for a long period, but in recent weeks it has lost considerable support in polls. Jüristo, head of the Liberal Citizen Foundation (SALK), said the party had been in gradual decline since the start of the year in surveys by both the Institute of Societal Studies and SALK.

Jüristo said Isamaa officials, including party leader Urmas Reinsalu, had suggested the party was saving its best form for election time. But he questioned whether the party’s current focus, including addressing a management crisis at Tallinn Zoo and articles comparing the European Union with the Soviet Union, was consistent with that plan.

“Looking at the numbers, it seems to me that Isamaa has had reason for some time to get moving and do something,” Jüristo said. He added that he was surprised the party appeared to be holding back, given that there was not much time left before the election.

Jüristo also discussed how other parties were preparing their campaigns. He said the Reform Party had highlighted pensions alongside security and economic issues, pledging not to cut them. The message contrasts with that of the Right-wing Party, which has promised to freeze pensions and, in Jüristo’s view, is trying to position itself as even more economically liberal than the Reform Party.

He said pensioners do not vote predominantly for the Centre Party. At the last election, their votes were divided between the Centre and Reform parties. Jüristo said the Reform Party’s focus on pensions made sense because many of its core supporters were reaching retirement age.

The Social Democrats, he said, have comparatively strong support among young people, shaping the issues they are likely to emphasise in their campaign.

Asked who would win the March 7 election, Jüristo said it was too early to tell. If the election were held that Sunday, he said, either Isamaa or the Centre Party would win, adding that he leaned slightly towards Isamaa.