US-Iran war disruption helps drive global emissions down

Global human-caused carbon emissions are expected to fall for the first time in a decade this year, partly because disruptions to supply chains linked to the US-Iran war have raised fossil fuel prices, according to a new report cited by ERR. The decline is not fast enough to meet climate goals.

More than 100 scientists contributed to the report, which assesses the global carbon cycle and climate trends. The Global Carbon Budget project has now examined the sources and natural sinks of carbon dioxide for the 20th time, also asking whether current climate policies can separate economic growth from rising emissions.

Fossil fuel emissions are forecast to fall by 0.4 percent this year, with lower emissions in China, the United States, the European Union and Japan driving the decline. China’s emissions are expected to drop by 0.9 percent and those of the US by 1.3 percent, while the EU’s are forecast to fall by about 1.5 percent. In contrast, India’s emissions are expected to rise by 4.4 percent as its economy grows.

Over the 2016-2025 period, 40 countries achieved statistically significant economic growth while reducing their carbon emissions, the report found. Together, they account for a quarter of global emissions. The authors said this showed that the green transition and economic wellbeing can go hand in hand.

Rapid growth in renewable energy and lower coal use in several major economies are helping curb emissions. Fossil fuel emissions in the rest of the world are forecast to fall by 0.7 percent, mainly because oil-related emissions are expected to drop by 1.9 percent. The report’s authors attributed this decline to a short-term response to supply-chain disruptions and price rises linked to the war with Iran.

Emissions from land use and forest loss are declining slowly. Deforestation produced an average of about 2.2 gigatonnes of carbon emissions a year over the past decade, including 1.0 gigatonne from permanent forest loss. Brazil, Indonesia and the Democratic Republic of the Congo recorded the largest losses of forest area.

The report says oceans and vegetation absorb half of the carbon released. New forest plantations and growth in existing forests could also capture a significant share of the carbon released through forest loss.