Ojakivi expects Reform Party support to rise before election

Reform Party support is likely to rise before the election, ERR journalist Mirko Ojakivi said on the television programme Ringvaade, pointing to the party’s campaign resources and the fact that its main campaign has not yet begun.

The party’s recent departures and low polling numbers have made it difficult for some politicians to face the election, Ojakivi said. Reform’s positive target is 20 seats, but its average support over the past four weeks has been about 12, making that goal difficult to reach.

Several high-profile politicians have recently left the party. Former defence minister Hanno Pevkur announced on Wednesday that he was leaving politics. Ojakivi said people in contact with Pevkur had received signals since the summer that he might have spent long enough in politics. He also said Pevkur would likely have remained a strong candidate, capable of winning a personal mandate wherever the party placed him.

Ojakivi attributed the departures partly to fatigue from governing and partly to the party’s weak polling. He said uncertainty over how many seats the party could win may make politicians reluctant to risk their reputations by running.

He said Reform still had substantial campaign funding and people able to communicate its message, even though its pre-campaign had already begun. Ojakivi said he therefore considered a rise in the party’s support likely.

He also noted that the party was losing established vote-getters. Liina Kersna received nearly 4,000 votes in Tartu at the previous election, Maris Lauri received 3,500 and Andres Sutt more than 3,000, he said. Ojakivi estimated that departures over the past few weeks had cost the party close to 20,000 votes. Kaja Kallas, who received 32,000 votes at the previous election, will not run for Reform because she has another important job, he said. Meelis Kiili, who is also not running again, could have brought in several thousand votes, Ojakivi added.