Tüür says Trump may seek ties with Russia or China

US President Donald Trump may turn more of his attention to foreign policy after losing domestic political power, a move that could hurt Europe, Estonian experts told ERR. Political scientist Karmo Tüür said Trump could obstruct Congress and seek cooperation with Russia or China.

US policy will be marked by turbulence and uncertainty over the next two years, former Estonian ambassador to the United States Jonatan Vseviov said. If Trump cannot pursue his domestic agenda after the congressional loss, he is likely to focus more on foreign policy, though Congress can constrain him.

“This means that US foreign policy will ultimately be harder to predict and may be less stable than before,” Vseviov said. He said the election results made it clearer that Europe must manage its own affairs rather than rely on others to do so.

Igor Gretski, a researcher at the International Centre for Defence and Security, said the Democrats’ gains could also have a positive side for Europe. Republicans would have to assess their domestic and foreign policy decisions, he said, but he did not expect major changes.

Gretski said he was unsure whether Trump would reconsider his tariff policy towards Europe. But because the war in Iran was unpopular in the United States, he expected Senate hearings to question whether US policy in the Middle East and other regions had been right.

Vseviov said American voters had shown they were not interested in agreements with Russia. Congress could seek to influence policy on sanctions and Russia through investigations or legislation, including measures on sanctions, he said. The president, however, has the power to veto legislation.

Tüür said Trump might make more concessions to Russia to create the impression of better dialogue and show voters at home that he was solving problems. Vseviov noted that presidents have broad powers in foreign and defence policy, including decisions on conducting wars, and may become more active abroad when Congress blocks their domestic agenda.

Vseviov said the next two years could be turbulent and uncertain for US foreign policy, as Congress may obstruct the president’s initiatives. The new Congress is due to take office at the start of next year, around the time preliminary campaigning for the next presidential election begins. He said domestic political considerations would shape every step in US politics.