Arras says Trump may struggle to recover from negative approval rating

US President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen into negative territory, making his political future more difficult, elections and political communications expert Annika Arras told ERR’s Välisilm programme. Democrats are widely expected to win control of the House of Representatives in the midterm elections, but a change in power may not resolve political gridlock or voter dissatisfaction.

Forecasts put the Democrats’ chances of taking the House at 80 to 90 percent. Their prospects in the Senate are lower, at around 50 to 60 percent, though some estimates are higher, Arras said.

The outcome will depend in part on whether campaign spending or voter turnout proves more decisive. Republicans have put more than $1 billion into their campaign, while polls indicate that Democrats are more motivated to vote. Dissatisfaction with Trump is a powerful driver of turnout, Arras said.

Trump has said he can still veto decisions made against him. Arras said he was unlikely to accept a defeat easily and noted that Republicans might challenge election results. One such situation was already unfolding in a state, she said, adding that claims about a “deep state” and doubts about the legitimacy of elections could emerge if the result did not favour Trump.

Democrats have the willingness to act, but do not yet have a clearly established leader, Arras said. The party is still assessing who could become its next presidential candidate for 2028. The midterm results are likely to help shape the balance of power within the party, she added.

Arras said competing interests within the Democratic Party help explain why no single candidate has emerged as its leading figure.