Centre Party overtakes Isamaa in Norstat poll
Wednesday 28th October 2026 on 07:15 in
Estonia
The Centre Party has moved ahead of Isamaa in a Norstat poll for the first time in three years, according to ERR. The four-week average puts the Centre Party at 23.1 percent and Isamaa at 22.8 percent.
The Centre Party’s support rose by 1.4 percentage points in the latest weekly results, reaching its highest level since August 2020. Isamaa fell by 1.2 points, losing the lead in a Norstat poll for the first time since November 2023.
The Social Democratic Party gained 1.8 points over the past four weeks to reach 16.5 percent, its highest level since September 2024. The other parties were the Conservative People’s Party of Estonia, or EKRE, at 13.8 percent; the Reform Party at 12.3 percent; and Parempoolsed at 6.4 percent. Reform Party support has declined by 1.7 points over the past five weeks.
The governing Estonia 200 party was supported by 1.4 percent of respondents. The Greens, the Koos party and ERK each received less than 1 percent, while 1.7 percent said they would vote for an independent candidate.
The governing parties together had 13.7 percent support, compared with 76.2 percent for the opposition parties represented in the Riigikogu, Estonia’s parliament.
The results cover polling conducted from September 28 to October 25, with 4,000 voting-age Estonian citizens surveyed. Political scientist Martin Mölder’s calculations based on the current figures suggest the Centre Party would win 26 seats in parliament, Isamaa 25, the Social Democrats 18, EKRE 14, the Reform Party 12 and Parempoolsed six.
In a separate measure of public opinion, 26 percent said the government was doing its job very or rather well, while 69 percent said it was doing rather or very badly. Twenty percent approved of Prime Minister Kristen Michal’s performance, while 64 percent disapproved.
The poll was commissioned by the Institute of Societal Research. Its published party ratings combine four weeks of results and exclude respondents without a party preference. The maximum margin of error for the Centre Party, the largest group in the poll, was 1.58 percentage points; it was lower for other parties.