Centre Party and Social Democrats overtake Isamaa in Emor poll

The Centre Party and the Social Democratic Party topped Emor’s October ratings, pushing Isamaa into third place after a long period at the top, ERR reported. Emor polling expert Aivar Voog said many voters were still unsure of their party preference and that campaigning could further shift support.

Party ratings changed little from month to month over the past year, Voog said, but the larger shifts of the past two months reflect the approaching elections. Parties have become more active and started advertising campaigns, he said, while new members may also have influenced the figures.

Isamaa’s support has included many voters with uncertain preferences, Voog said, and that support is now being distributed differently. He said a clearer picture of party preferences may emerge at the start of next year, when some parties could distinguish themselves and attract voters with less settled views.

Jonatan Vseviov, a former long-serving secretary-general of the Foreign Ministry and a security expert, announced on Thursday that he had joined the Social Democratic Party. He is also the party’s candidate for prime minister, and his move could affect Emor’s next poll. Voog said Vseviov was known among opinion leaders and educated people but remained little known to a broader electorate. He added that Vseviov had strong foreign and security policy expertise, while his economic policy credentials remained to be demonstrated.

Isamaa had long been the most popular party among ethnic Estonian respondents, but the Social Democrats have now edged ahead. The Social Democrats, previously the most popular choice among younger people, are now also the leading choice among middle-aged voters. Voog said this could benefit the party because middle-aged people are active voters, while younger supporters may be less likely to turn out.

Voog said EKRE may have less active supporters. He described its typical supporter as a man over 60 living outside Tallinn, who follows alternative media and is less influenced by major media outlets because he trusts EKRE’s own channels. This could make EKRE’s voters among the most certain in their choice, he said. The party received more than 13 percent in the latest Emor poll, a share that could remain stable; the question is whether it can appeal to other residents and whether its potential voters will turn out.

Voters with right-wing views may choose between Isamaa, EKRE, the Reform Party and Parempoolsed, while voters with more conservative views may choose between EKRE, Isamaa and the Centre Party. Voog said parties would have to compete for these voters. The Social Democrats could benefit from voters leaving Eesti 200, whose support is low, although some may instead choose the Reform Party.

Voog said turnout among conservative parties’ supporters is lower than among voters with more liberal views. He said less active voters tend to have lower levels of education and may find it difficult to decide whom to support, while their media consumption may also be limited.