Raag says Trump cannot force Ukraine to capitulate

Security expert Ilmar Raag said US President Donald Trump lacks the power to force Ukraine to surrender to Russia, despite his unpredictable behaviour and disruptions to Starlink. Raag made the remarks on the Ringvaade programme, ERR reported.

Raag said Trump should not be equated with the United States as a whole. He pointed to US Republican senators who have opposed Trump’s recent statements, saying they represented the Americans he considered allies.

Trump has been pressuring Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to make peace with Russia. Raag also referred to a diesel deal Trump signed with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week, which he said was an attempt to regain popularity ahead of the US midterm elections. Trump has also threatened to stop sharing US intelligence with Ukraine and has partly restricted the country’s access to the Starlink satellite communications system. During a visit to the UK, Zelensky said in an interview with journalist Piers Morgan that he felt betrayed by Trump.

Raag said the situation was not an immediate catastrophe. Although US intelligence is important, he said, it is not the only source of information. Starlink supports several functions for Ukrainian drones, but not all of them. Units can still communicate with one another and command centres can still contact teams near the front, he said. However, Ukraine’s most effective drones are affected when Starshield’s key functions are unavailable.

Raag said it was unclear whether the Starlink disruptions were accidental or deliberate, but that the timing raised questions. He said Ukrainian forces received missile warnings too late when Starlink was not working. Conflicting statements from US officials, including Trump’s denial that a decision had been made, suggested to Raag that the US administration was not speaking with one voice. He added that Trump could change his position again, making it important for Europe to manage its own affairs.

European leaders have differed in their responses to Trump. Some have condemned his rhetoric, while others have urged a calmer approach to avoid provoking him. Raag said Trump was emotional and could escalate conflicts, but that some European leaders were waiting for the midterm elections, hoping he would lose much of his current power.

Raag said US polls showed that most Americans consider Putin an aggressor and support Ukraine.