Geoecologist forecasts possible autumn storm in Estonia this Friday

Estonia could see its first autumn storm this weekend, with the cyclone’s path still uncertain, Tallinn University senior research fellow Hannes Tõnisson said, according to ERR.

The storm could reach western Estonia on Friday afternoon or move towards Latvia, Tõnisson said on the television programme Terevisioon. Forecasts point to coastal wind gusts exceeding 30 metres per second, but the cyclone’s route is expected to become clearer only in the days before it arrives. The strongest winds could affect the islands, particularly the Sõrve Peninsula and western Saaremaa. Current estimates suggest the wind direction should not disrupt ferry traffic.

Tõnisson said a storm, in the scientific sense, means wind averaging at least 15 metres per second for at least 10 minutes. Brief stronger gusts alone do not meet that definition. He added that a shift of 50 kilometres in the cyclone’s path could change which areas are hit hardest, with the focus potentially moving from Estonia’s islands to Latvia.

A sharp change to colder weather is forecast around October 18 to 21. The colder air could bring sleet and temperatures close to zero, but Tõnisson said people should not expect lasting snow cover before November. Sleet or snow showers, morning frosts and black ice could arrive earlier.

Tõnisson also said this year’s El Niño could bring more precipitation to Estonia. He cited his review of the relationship between El Niño events and the Tartu Marathon over the past 15 years, saying the race was cancelled during an El Niño year only once. He cautioned that forecasting is uncertain because this year’s El Niño is exceptional.