UK rules out separate nuclear guarantee for Nordic and Baltic states

The United Kingdom is developing its nuclear capabilities in the air and at sea but does not plan to offer Nordic and Baltic countries a separate nuclear guarantee through the UK-led Joint Expeditionary Force, ERR reported. Security experts said such a guarantee is not needed and that Britain should focus on strengthening its conventional forces.

The Joint Expeditionary Force is a defence cooperation group for Nordic and Baltic countries. Its crisis measures complement NATO, and it is intended to respond first in the event of a threat.

“The Baltic Sea is vital to the security of the United Kingdom. I do not draw a dividing line between our territorial waters in the Atlantic and the North Sea and the Baltic Sea. We are all in the same operational area,” British Navy chief General Gwyn Jenkins said.

Jenkins recently told Finnish newspaper Iltalehti that JEF partners would be offered Britain’s so-called nuclear umbrella. Security expert Meelis Oidsalu said this did not amount to a separate guarantee and did not signal a change in Britain’s nuclear policy.

Oidsalu said Britain’s longstanding doctrine provides for the defence of NATO allies and does not state that protection requires a NATO Article 5 operation. He added that the threshold for using nuclear weapons in a war of attrition or a limited war of conquest is very high, so Britain should invest more in conventional capabilities.

A recent review of Britain’s armed forces found that substantial funding was going towards what Oidsalu called a questionable nuclear capability, while the army and some maritime capabilities were underfunded. He said Britain had taken some steps in drone warfare, but not as many as it could have.

Oidsalu said this raised questions about whether Britain would be able to sustain its role as a regional military leader. Retired Major General Neeme Väli also pointed to ongoing resource constraints. He said plans for sending a brigade to Estonia had changed in recent months: an armoured brigade was initially discussed, but the focus had shifted to other capabilities. Väli said this could reflect a shortage of resources.

Former defence minister Hanno Pevkur said Britain’s capabilities should not be underestimated. He said Estonia’s interest was for Britain not only to make commitments, but to act on them, and added that he believed it would.

About 900 British soldiers are currently in Estonia. The contingent due to arrive next year is expected to be about 300 people larger.