Security concerns shape Latvia’s parliamentary election

Security concerns and attitudes towards Russia’s war in Ukraine have become key dividing lines in Latvia’s parliamentary election on Saturday, ERR reports. Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs, who supports Ukraine, is expected to remain in power, but political fragmentation could make forming a government difficult.

Reuters reported that voters are worried by warnings of possible Russian aggression and by airspace violations that have increased since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia denies plans to attack NATO, and alliance officials say Moscow is not currently capable of a direct attack, but security concerns have strongly influenced the campaign.

Polls put Kulbergs’ centrist United List at about 14 percent, narrowly ahead of the openly pro-Russian Sovereign Power/New Latvians slate, led by Julia Stepanenko.

Kulbergs, a former business executive, took office in May after the previous coalition collapsed over the government’s handling of incidents involving military drones entering Latvian territory. The drones were Ukrainian, but officials blamed Russia for causing them to stray from their flight paths. Kulbergs told Reuters last month that Ukraine should receive everything it needs to gain the upper hand and win.

During the campaign, Kulbergs has pledged to build up Latvia’s counter-drone capacity and keep defence spending at five percent of gross domestic product. His Kremlin-friendly opponents say Latvia should stop all aid to Ukraine and focus more on the cost of living, particularly for the country’s Russian-speaking minority.

“Our voters want peace; they do not want to look for shelters or endure air-raid alarms,” Stepanenko told Reuters. She said the war should not be encouraged in any way, including through funding, and that Ukraine should win through peace negotiations.

Polls suggest at least two other parties could enter parliament: the populist, MAGA-style Latvia First and the left-wing Progressives, whose supporters include many younger voters. Kulbergs’ ability to form a working coalition will depend on their results and on how many other parties clear the five-percent threshold.

He may also need an agreement with Latvia First leader and business executive Ainars Šlesers, who appears to have become more critical of Ukraine in recent months and is seeking support from both sides. Roberts Kits, a researcher at the Latvian Institute of Strategy and Economic Research, said Šlesers’ message was that his party condemned Russia’s invasion and stood with Ukraine, but argued that support for Ukraine came at the expense of Latvia’s economy.

Polling stations opened at 8 a.m. and are due to close at 8 p.m. The first results are expected a few hours after closing, with the final result likely to become clear after midnight. Voters are electing members of Latvia’s 100-seat parliament, the Saeima, for four-year terms. Fourteen lists are running, with 1,428 candidates in total.

More than 169,600 people voted early, and nearly 5,000 cast ballots by mail, bringing early participation to 11.2 percent. Latvia has strengthened its IT systems for the election.