Latvian exit polls have overstated some parties and missed others

Exit polls in Latvia have sometimes differed from final election results by several percentage points, with some parties overestimated and others underestimated, LSM reports. The comparisons include the 2022 and 2018 parliamentary elections.

In the 2022 election, the biggest gap was for New Unity. The exit poll put its support at about 22.5%, while the final result was 18.97%. The poll also overestimated the Progressives, at 8.3% compared with 6.16% in the final count.

By contrast, the poll underestimated For Stability!, which received 8.3% of the vote after being projected at 5.4%. Harmony was also underestimated, with 3.5% in the poll and 4.81% in the final result.

The results also showed how close exit poll estimates can be to the 5% threshold for entering parliament without guaranteeing a party will cross it. The poll put For Stability! at 5.4%, Latvia First at 5.3% and Development/For! at 5.2%. In the final results, the first two entered parliament, while Development/For! fell short with 4.97%.

In the 2018 parliamentary election, the poll underestimated Who Owns the State?, estimating its support at 11.5% against a final result of 14.25%. It overestimated the National Alliance, projecting 12.6% compared with 11.02% in the final count.

Exit polls can differ from final results partly because some voters do not disclose which party they supported. LSM says this may happen when voters feel embarrassed about their choice or believe it is socially unacceptable, lowering the poll estimates for those parties.

An exit poll is planned at polling stations on the day of the next parliamentary election, according to LSM.