Retail sales rise 6% as economist warns of winter uncertainty

Estonia’s retail sales revenue reached 974 million euros in August, with sales up 6% year on year after rising 4% in July, Statistics Estonia data show. ERR reported that an economist sees stronger purchasing power but warned that winter heating costs could weigh on sales.

Fuel retail sales increased 5% compared with August 2025. The figure covers total sales revenue, including income from catering and other goods and services. It last declined in December 2024.

Food sales rose for the third consecutive month, increasing 3% year on year, helped by lower food prices. Sales of industrial goods had the biggest impact on the overall result, growing 8% compared with August 2025.

Luminor chief economist Lenno Uusküla said the growth was moderate and indicated that people had more money to spend. He said purchasing power had increased notably, particularly among people earning above the median who had received pay rises. Price growth was low, at 2.2% in July, and eased slightly afterwards, he said. Lower food prices also meant people could buy more with the same amount of money.

Uusküla said retail sales volumes could fall during the heating season. It is not yet clear how much heating will cost this winter or how cold the season will be, he said, adding that January and February could prove difficult months and show how retail sales perform going forward.