Polish expert says Lithuania’s resilience extends beyond its military

LRT reports that Lithuania could become vulnerable as a whole if damaged bridges cannot be bypassed, energy supplies are disrupted or residents do not know how to respond during the first hours of a crisis. Polish security expert Marcin Samsel, who spent several days in Lithuania, assessed not only the country’s billions in defence spending but also less visible elements of national resilience.

Samsel examined roads, bridges, the port and other infrastructure, as well as how the state prepares residents for possible crises. He identified three main pillars of a resilient state: a strong military, resilient critical infrastructure and a prepared population.

The expert acknowledged that the Suwalki Corridor remains one of the region’s most sensitive points. However, he said Russia has its own vulnerability in the Kaliningrad region. He also assessed Lithuania’s system for training and preparing civilians as better organised than Poland’s.

Samsel warned about the vulnerability of large, concentrated energy facilities, which could become easier targets during a conflict.

Lithuania is allocating a record 4.79 billion euros, or 5.38 percent of gross domestic product, to defence this year. The funds are expected to accelerate the creation of a national division, the hosting of a German brigade, the strengthening of air defence, weapons purchases and the development of military infrastructure.

However, Samsel takes a broader view of security. He said that only all these elements together create an effective deterrence system.

“War is essentially a difference in potential. If an opponent understands that attacking is not worthwhile because it could suffer severe damage itself, it will not do so,” he said.

In an interview with LRT, Samsel identified the three pillars of a resilient state as a strong military capable not only of using weapons but also of producing and servicing them, resilient critical infrastructure and a prepared society.

The latter two elements are less visible than tanks or air-defence systems. However, during a crisis they can determine whether a state is able to continue functioning at all.

Alternative routes are vital in a crisis

In peacetime, a bridge is simply part of the daily journey to work. During a war, the same bridge could determine whether heavy equipment reaches another part of the country in time and whether thousands of people can be evacuated.

Samsel highlighted this dual purpose of infrastructure.

“This is not only about the movement of the military and heavy equipment. It is also about large flows of civilians. People will have to move, and may have to evacuate,” he said, stressing the importance of alternative roads, bridges and other transport links.

The issue is particularly relevant to Lithuania because the country is small and there are few alternative connections with Poland. Efforts to address these gaps have accelerated in recent years.

In July, work began in the Lazdijai district on two road sections important to the Suwalki Corridor. The projects are worth 19.6 million euros.

The Defence Fund is also financing preparations for the reconstruction of eight bridges and viaducts on roads leading through southern Lithuania towards Poland. The Ministry of Transport directly links these investments to strengthening military mobility and enabling allied forces to be redeployed quickly.

“This is no longer just road modernisation. It is the creation of a backup plan,” Samsel said.