Sweden prepares society for war with seven-scenario plan

Sweden is taking the possibility of war with Russia seriously and is preparing not only its armed forces but also society for conditions in which every sector must function amid chaos, LRT reports.

The country has established a separate Civil Protection and Resilience Agency, led by former military officer Mikael Frisell. “My mission is to prepare society for war,” Frisell said.

The agency and the Swedish armed forces have jointly prepared a document outlining seven scenarios for which every sector and society as a whole must be ready. The goal is for society to withstand a full-scale war without collapsing for at least three months. During that time, all processes would have to be reorganised to meet wartime needs.

Frisell said Western societies should not be distracted but should clearly understand that Russia is the real adversary, regardless of who occupies the White House or what is happening in Washington.

His central argument is that wars are won not by armies but by societies. He said adversaries always target a society’s will to resist and seek to weaken it before armed action even begins. A society’s determination to resist and its resilience in the face of hardship provide the support that armed forces need on the battlefield.

“We have to understand that in modern conflicts, the battlefield is society and the front line runs through our minds. This is important to understand. Armies do not win wars; societies win them. What do I mean? We must have a strong and resilient society supporting the armed forces, protect society and maintain critical functions. If we do not do this, we will not win the war. We see this in Ukraine,” Frisell said at a discussion organised by the Geopolitics and Security Studies Centre.

The Civil Protection and Resilience Agency is subordinate to the Swedish government but works closely with the Swedish armed forces. Its main task is to coordinate the civilian sector’s preparations for a full-scale war.

Sweden is divided into six civil-defence preparedness regions, each headed by a county governor. Each of the 12 sectors, including healthcare, finance and energy, also has a coordinator-general director. Together, these arrangements establish a clear chain of command, with all of them accountable to the agency’s director general.

“We need to move, societies need to move, from peacetime crisis preparedness to preparing for the worst-case scenario, preparing for war. If we focus on comprehensive wartime defence, we will certainly also be able to deal with peacetime crises. But if we focus only on peacetime crises, we will never be able to repel a full-scale invasion,” Frisell said.

He said this required a change in mindset and culture, with all actors considering the worst-case scenario when carrying out their daily tasks. Civil and comprehensive defence, he added, should be the foundation of everything society does rather than a temporary trend.

According to Frisell, the main objectives of comprehensive defence are to maintain essential public services during wartime, support national and allied armed forces, protect civilians, and strengthen Sweden’s will to resist and society’s resilience.