Estonia to order nuclear plant security threat assessment

Estonia’s Ministry of Economic Affairs and Communications plans to commission a security threat assessment as part of the preliminary site selection for a planned nuclear power plant, ERR reported.

The assessment will examine the maximum capability and sustained willingness to attack the plant at the tactical, operational and strategic levels, including direct, indirect and hybrid attacks, the ministry said.

Authorities will assess candidate sites in Viru-Nigula and Lüganuse municipalities based on worst-case scenarios. These will include long-range attacks, drones, missiles, directed-energy weapons, blast waves from chemical explosions and the remote disruption of cooling systems.

The criteria are based on guidance from the International Atomic Energy Agency, which sets out nuclear security objectives for the site selection stage. Each criterion will be scored on a four-point scale from zero to three.

The assessment will cover vulnerabilities including local and regional threats, links to nearby sensitive facilities, conditions that could facilitate an attack, response capability and time, and the ability to expand and secure the security perimeter. The vulnerability of the cooling system will also be assessed.

Authorities must also assess potential consequences by examining objects and populations within the impact area, including population centres, critical infrastructure, airports and other transport facilities, and the state border. They may also explain why a candidate site should be excluded from further consideration.

Internal security threats will not be assessed at this stage. The ministry said these threats concern people with authorised access and depend on staff background checks, internal control measures and security culture, which would be the same at all six sites. Internal threats will instead be addressed at the facility level during the second stage of planning.

Fermi Energia is planning the BWRX-300 nuclear power plant in Estonia.

Six locations are currently being considered in the special national spatial plan. The first stage will select the best site based on national defence, environmental protection, socioeconomic impacts, technology and geology. The second stage will develop a detailed plan for the selected location and carry out a comprehensive environmental impact assessment.

According to current plans, construction will begin in 2032, alongside the application process for an operating licence. Construction, including commissioning and start-up, is scheduled to continue until the end of 2035. The licence is expected to be obtained in early 2036, when the first 300-megawatt reactor is due to begin generating electricity. A second 300-megawatt reactor is scheduled to start production in 2038.