Raik doubts Putin will ever sign peace deal with Ukraine

Russia is attacking Ukraine with increasing force, and Russian President Vladimir Putin is unlikely to seek a peace agreement because he believes Russia can outlast Ukraine, Kristi Raik, head of the International Centre for Defence and Security, told ERR’s foreign affairs programme “Välisilm”.

Raik said Russia was seeking to create fear not only in Ukraine but also among its allies, in an effort to weaken Europe’s resolve to continue supporting Kyiv.

“Russia is constantly looking for new means because the war is not going well for it. That is why it has begun taking greater risks and escalating, hoping that Europe will not be ready to introduce stronger countermeasures,” Raik said.

She added that European countries’ responses had so far been weaker than expected, citing Germany’s reaction to events at Leipzig-Halle Airport as an example.

Raik said continued support for Ukraine was essential, including stronger air defence and tougher sanctions against Russia. She said there were still many measures that Western countries had not dared to use.

At an Arctic meeting in Rovaniemi, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk warned of decisive weeks ahead. According to Raik, the warning referred to Russia’s plans for further attacks in Europe.

“Understandably, the countries whose support is most important to Ukraine, led by Germany, are the main targets,” Raik said. She added that Russia’s influence operations could find more favourable ground in Germany and France than in the Baltic states.

Raik said US President Donald Trump had not taken significant steps to pressure Russia, although his attitude towards Ukraine had occasionally become more positive.

She said it was currently fair to conclude that Washington wanted peace considerably more than Moscow did.

“No one in Ukraine believes the war will end before next spring. On the contrary, Russia is attacking with increasing force, and Putin’s assumption is that Russia can hold out longer,” Raik said.

She said she did not consider it likely that Putin would ever sign a peace treaty with Ukraine because he had failed to achieve the goals he had set there.

“From his point of view, the only alternative is to continue the war, or perhaps at some point limit the hostilities if they become too costly and dangerous for Russia,” Raik said.