Estonia is warming 1.5 times faster than the global average

Estonia’s average air temperature rises by about 1.5 degrees Celsius for every degree of global warming, according to a study by researchers at the University of Tartu, reported by ERR.

Instead of examining what Estonia’s climate will be like in a specific year such as 2050 or 2100, the researchers linked local changes directly to the extent of global warming.

“It does not matter whether two degrees is reached in 2040 under a more pessimistic projection, or in 2070 or 2090 under a more optimistic projection. What matters is what happens to Estonia’s climate when that level is reached,” said Erko Jakobson, the study’s lead author and an associate professor of atmospheric remote sensing at the University of Tartu.

The study found that very cold weather will become less frequent, while hot days, tropical nights and heatwaves will increase. This means climate change may already be visible and noticeable in Estonia during the warmer part of the year.

Winters warming faster than summers

The researchers ran 31 global climate models to develop their projections. Jakobson said public expectations for the accuracy of climate forecasts are often considerably greater than science can provide.

“Some local governments want to know how the climate will change in one place or another with village-level precision. We cannot do that. Even if it were mathematically possible to do so at county level, it would not be meaningful and we would essentially be lying,” Jakobson said.

The analysis found that Estonia’s winters are warming several times faster than its summers. For every additional degree of global warming, Estonia’s average winter temperature rises by 1.9 degrees Celsius, while the average summer temperature rises by 1.3 degrees.

The number of frost days declines by 13 percent for every additional degree of warming. Although milder winters may reduce heating costs, they can also create other problems, including difficulties for winter sports enthusiasts.

“We can forecast a reduction in cold days, but we do not actually know whether it will snow during those cold days. In any case, even under the most pessimistic projection, there should still be snow in Estonia until the end of the century. However, a long period without thawing will probably become a bright memory for skiers,” Jakobson said.

Farmers face more immediate challenges, as alternating thaws and cold weather threaten winter crops that would otherwise be protected by snow.

More precipitation expected

As the climate warms, the global water cycle will also intensify. In Estonia, precipitation increases by an average of about 31 millimetres, or 4.6 percent, for every additional degree of global warming.

Most of the additional precipitation is expected to fall in winter and autumn, while the models produced less clear projections for summer.