CIA chief’s Moscow visit may have warned Russia over NATO, analyst says

US officials may have informed Lithuania in advance about CIA Director John Ratcliffe’s visit to Moscow to reassure the Baltic states and warn Russia against possible action targeting NATO’s eastern flank, political scientist Tomas Janeliūnas said, LRT reported, citing ELTA.

Janeliūnas, a professor at the Vilnius University Institute of International Relations and Political Science, said the decision to inform Lithuania could itself reveal the visit’s purpose.

“Apparently, it is related to NATO’s eastern flank states and to a certain warning. In this way, US representatives are trying to reassure the Baltic states and perhaps other NATO eastern flank countries,” he said.

He noted that advance coordination of a visit at this level with Lithuania was not necessarily standard practice, making the decision to share the information potentially significant.

In Janeliūnas’s assessment, one of the main explanations for Ratcliffe’s trip could be a warning to Russia over military action against NATO countries.

“At least in my view, that should be the main explanation. There are quite a few signs that at least one, or perhaps the main, mission Ratcliffe carried out with the Russians could indeed have been this,” he said.

Janeliūnas said Moscow may have been given so-called red lines covering not only direct military aggression but also hybrid attacks, including attempts to damage critical infrastructure inside NATO countries or the use of drones and other airborne means against them.

“Such red lines could have been formulated by Ratcliffe,” he added.

Allies should share information

Laurynas Kasčiūnas, a former minister of national defence, also welcomed the fact that Lithuania had been informed about the possible visit.

“It is good that allies inform allies. It is very important that we are on the same page,” Kasčiūnas said.

He did not rule out a connection between the visit and possible Russian provocations or a heightened risk of escalation. He said the trip could also signal to Moscow that it should not carry out actions it was planning.

President Gitanas Nausėda said on Wednesday that Lithuania had been informed by its partners about the possible visit by the CIA director.

Nausėda said he did not want to comment on the content of the meeting, but that Lithuania would receive information about its aims and substance. He suggested that the meeting was intended to reduce geopolitical tensions in the region.

US media reported on Tuesday that Ratcliffe had arrived in Moscow for meetings. He reportedly flew there from Riga on a US Air Force military transport aircraft.