Sinisalu dismisses speculation of secret US-Russia deal

The unexpected visit to Moscow by CIA Director John Ratcliffe does not necessarily signal a secret agreement between the United States and Russia, Arnold Sinisalu, a visiting professor at the University of Tartu’s Johan Skytte Institute and former director general of KAPO, told ERR.

Ratcliffe unexpectedly travelled to Moscow on Tuesday and held talks with Russian officials, according to US media reports. The subject of the discussions is unknown.

Sinisalu said communication between the intelligence services of the two major powers was routine. “We should not assume that the only issue between Russia and America is the war in Ukraine,” he said on Vikerraadio’s Uudis+ programme.

Although the war is an important issue, Sinisalu said he would currently place the military conflict between Iran and the United States first among international concerns, as it was also linked to US domestic politics.

He said the visit could have been kept completely secret if the United States had wanted that. “They could have changed planes several times,” Sinisalu said. Since the visit had not been concealed from the public, he urged people to take a simpler view of it.

Sinisalu also said there was no reason to fear that the two countries were creating secret agreements because the level of trust between them was not high enough.

He said the large aircraft used by Ratcliffe deserved separate attention. The heads of the FBI and CIA generally use smaller planes, Sinisalu said, suggesting that something could have been on board or that the choice could have been related to security.

Prisoner exchange possible

Sinisalu said various possibilities had been discussed, including a prisoner exchange, which he considered the most logical explanation. However, prisoner exchanges had usually been carried out much more quickly and had sometimes been shown live, he said.

“We should remain calm and assume that this is probably something with a much simpler content,” Sinisalu said.

He noted that CIA directors had not generally travelled in person for prisoner exchanges, but added that the visit could involve an associated issue, such as last-minute bargaining over an individual that could be decided only at the highest level below the presidents.

Sinisalu said the key question was how broad a range of issues the major powers had discussed. US intelligence certainly had information that could be used to try to initiate Ukraine-Russia negotiations or resolve the situation with Iran, he said.

He also referred to recent speculation that Russia could be planning an operation against the Baltic states or NATO. Sinisalu said Russia currently lacked the strength to launch a conventional frontal attack.

“It would also be foolish, because it would give the Ukrainians an excellent opportunity to launch a counterattack, as Russia lacks both the manpower and weapons,” he said.

Sinisalu said developments in space should not be overlooked either, noting reports that some satellites had been monitoring European and American satellites.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Ratcliffe may also have met Russian President Vladimir Putin to deliver a warning. The United States has gathered intelligence indicating that Russia is preparing for a possible mobilisation and plans to test NATO’s resolve.