Survey backs Social Democrats’ prime minister switch, angers Nemunas Dawn voters

A survey commissioned by LRT found that 47 percent of Lithuania’s residents view the Social Democratic Party’s decision to replace Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė with Mindaugas Sinkevičius positively. Political scientist Ainius Lašas said the result was influenced by scandals surrounding the previous coalition and respondents’ political views, while political scientist Gabrielė Burbulytė said the findings should please the Social Democrats.

Eleven percent of respondents viewed the decision very positively, while 36 percent viewed it somewhat positively. Thirty percent assessed the change negatively: 6 percent very negatively and 24 percent somewhat negatively. One in four respondents either had no opinion or did not answer.

Social Democratic Party supporters were the most favourable towards the decision, with 71 percent viewing it positively and 15 percent negatively. Supporters of the Nemunas Dawn party were the most dissatisfied: 42 percent viewed the change negatively and 31 percent positively. Supporters of all other parties assessed the move more positively than negatively.

Two factors shaped public opinion

Lašas, a political scientist and dean of the Faculty of Social Sciences, Humanities and Arts at Kaunas University of Technology, said the positive public assessment was driven by two factors.

He pointed first to the scandals and political tensions that had surrounded the governing parties, as well as the former prime minister’s modest approval ratings. However, he said the survey also reflected the mood among supporters of individual parties.

“At least Social Democratic voters see the changes as a way of putting an end to this saga, which is why their assessment is strongly positive. On the other hand, people are assessing the consequences of the reset and how they affected the parties they support. In this case, we see that people who sympathise with the Social Democrats hope things will improve because things had been bad enough,” Lašas told LRT.

He said supporters of the party For Lithuania also viewed the changes strongly positively because their party had returned to the coalition. By contrast, he said, the attitude of Nemunas Dawn supporters was the most critical because the party had suffered the greatest setback.

Regarding residents who viewed the changes negatively, Lašas noted that some people disapprove of everything the government does.

“There is a category of people who dislike everything, and of course they did not like these changes either. On the other hand, let us admit that a third prime minister in several years would make many people look more critically at ordinary changes,” he said.

Although Nemunas Dawn is no longer part of the coalition, Lašas said the party would not quickly disappear from public attention. Its leader, Remigijus Žemaitaitis, remains visible and active on social media.

Lašas said that being outside the coalition could make it easier for the party to appeal to voters who deeply distrust the government.

“Being in political power discredits them to some extent as populists. On the other hand, staying in power a little longer would have been useful for the consolidation of the party itself. From the perspective of internal party development, being in power is a plus for them. The minus is being associated with the governing coalition, scandals and failures. So it is a double game,” he said.

Lašas believes the party will survive but will not significantly expand its voter base. He said Žemaitaitis was divisive and highly confrontational, meaning that voters either loved him and regarded him almost as a saviour or hated him.

Results should please Social Democrats

Burbulytė, a political scientist and lecturer at Klaipėda University, said the survey results should please the Social Democrats.

“Looking at the different age groups and geographical distribution, it can definitely be said that a positive assessment is visible. It can be concluded that the steps taken have paid off,” she told LRT.