Madise faces difficult election without Isamaa and Center Party

Estonian Chancellor of Justice Ülle Madise has formally agreed to run for president, but securing her election would be very difficult without support from Isamaa and the Center Party, political scientist Tõnis Leht said on ERR’s Vikerraadio programme Uudis+.

Madise cannot actively seek additional votes from her position as chancellor of justice and must remain politically independent, Leht said.

The formal announcement confirmed a candidacy that Madise had already strongly signalled at the end of the previous week. Sixty-two members of parliament have signed her nomination document.

Leht said the chancellor of justice cannot put herself forward as a candidate, visit parliamentary party factions to seek support or campaign on her own initiative. The office requires complete party-political neutrality and a neutral position towards parliament, he said.

Madise could run once she had broad and sufficient support in parliament and received a corresponding proposal. That process ultimately took shape, although it was preceded by weeks of speculation.

According to Leht, Madise would have a stronger position if at least 68 lawmakers had signed her nomination document. Support from members of Isamaa, the Center Party or even EKRE would allow her to present herself as a president above political divisions if elected.

Whether Madise is seen as representing a particular part of the political spectrum will depend on how her candidacy is resolved in parliament in the coming days. The decision lies with the leaders and lawmakers of Isamaa and the Center Party, which have not yet decided which candidate to officially support. Support from those parties remains possible.

Leht said statements by Center Party leader Mihhail Kõlvart, Isamaa leader Urmas Reinsalu and other party members over the past two weeks had also prepared voters for the possibility that parliament would fail to elect a president and the process would move to an electoral college.

He said the issue was not Madise herself. She could attract broad support and had strong authority in society on constitutional law, the meaning of the state and democratic rights. She was also well known to the public, while neither Isamaa nor the Center Party had, to his knowledge, criticised her as a potential president.

The criticism had focused on the election process and procedure, Leht said. Tiit Land is now on the table as an alternative candidate and is also a serious contender. Politically, this could serve Isamaa and the Center Party’s aim of moving the election to an electoral college, where they might have better chances.