Statistics office revises Estonia’s economic downturn into growth

Statistics Estonia has revised the country’s economic figures for the past four years, finding that the downturn was less severe than previously shown by gross domestic product statistics, ERR reported.

Robert Müürsepp, head of national accounts at Statistics Estonia, said the revisions included adjustments to the effects of prices during the period of rapid price increases.

As a result, the 2022 figures changed from a previously reported 1.2 percent contraction to 0.7 percent growth. Revisions for 2023 and 2024 were modest overall, while 2025 growth was revised from 0.7 percent to 1.3 percent.

“In recent years, we specified the impact of tax changes, which reduced the positive effect of taxes on GDP. At the same time, estimates of the value added generated by businesses improved,” Müürsepp said.

Rasmus Kattai, head of the monetary policy and economic research department at Eesti Pank, said the new data confirmed what broader data had already indicated: the economy had experienced difficult times, but the decline had not been as extensive as GDP statistics had suggested. He said the economy had been recovering since 2024, after the energy crisis.

“Revising and improving GDP statistics retrospectively is standard practice,” Kattai wrote on social media. “In any case, it is good that the overall statistical picture is now more consistent across many different indicators.”

Lenno Uusküla, chief economist at Luminor, said it was expected that estimates of economic growth for 2022 and 2023 would be revised. The largest difference in annual growth was recorded in the first quarter of 2022, when the previous estimate was 2.2 percent and the latest estimate was 4.6 percent. Growth in the first half of 2025 was also revised upwards by one percentage point.

“Such adjustments are significant during periods of unusually large changes, although they are not unprecedented for Estonia,” Uusküla said.

Statistics Estonia conducts a revision every year to update estimates for the previous four years. Müürsepp said the revisions were based on new data sources and more detailed calculations using supply and use tables.

Finance Minister Jürgen Ligi said the revised figures showed that Estonia had once again underestimated the strength of its economy. He added that assessment errors were made independently of the government, while the government had helped Statistics Estonia improve the quality of its work, including through funding.