Bear population growth may raise risk of attacks, expert says

Recent court rulings have significantly restricted bear hunting in Estonia, which could accelerate population growth and increase the risk of agricultural damage and dangerous encounters with people, ERR reports.

Peep Männil, a wildlife expert at the Environment Agency, said on the Vikerhommik radio programme that Estonia had approximately 1,100 bears in autumn 2025.

He said the population estimate is based on data collected throughout the year. Because bears move across large territories, researchers do not try to count individual animals directly. Instead, they count females with cubs born in the same year, as these bears move within a relatively small area, particularly in spring.

The assessment is based on observations. More than 7,000 were recorded across Estonia last year, most of them by hunters. Hunters increasingly use trail cameras, while the Estonian Hunters Society has developed a hunting information system called Jahis.

Researchers place the observations on a map according to time and location and analyse them to determine the number of different females with cubs born in the same year. Bears give birth every other year.

Trail cameras are also widely used by nature enthusiasts and photographers. Männil said the large number of images shared on social media could create an artificial impression that the number of bears had suddenly increased.

He said Estonia’s bear population had been growing for the past 20 years, with the rate of growth increasing over the past decade. On average, the population has risen by 5 percent a year, although the figure has varied from one year to another.

“In fact, it would have grown much faster, but regular hunting also took place during the past 20 years,” Männil said.

He said court restrictions had significantly limited bear hunting but had not brought it to a complete halt. As a result, the population’s rate of growth would probably increase.

Männil said the Environment Agency did not view restrictions on bear hunting as a bad thing because it is independent and not a direct interest group arguing that there are either too many or too few bears.

However, hunters and farmers believe that bears are already too numerous in at least some regions. If a species becomes too abundant, it can begin to interfere with economic activities or other interests, Männil said.

Some groups, including nature tourism operators, would prefer there to be more bears and other attractive species, and for them to move outside dense forests more often so they could be shown to tourists.

Männil noted that the estimate of 1,100 bears represented a minimum to some extent, as not all females with cubs are necessarily observed.

In his assessment, restricting bear hunting would not be positive in the long term because the bear population would grow and conflicts would certainly increase. Bears’ impact on the growth of the moose population would also increase.