Arras sees Estonia’s presidential election reaching electoral college

Political communications expert Annika Arras told ERR that although Estonia’s parliament, the Riigikogu, wants to agree on a presidential candidate, the political situation and the opposition’s desire to shape the election narrative will most likely push the decision to the electoral college.

Arras said Ülle Madise could become a candidate supported by the coalition, although Madise herself has said she wants to be a candidate for everyone and remain impartial. Parliament will begin collecting signatures for her candidacy on Wednesday, and no direct opposition to her candidacy has been expressed.

“The possibility exists,” Arras said, while noting that the numbers in the Riigikogu would make a straightforward agreement difficult.

She said politicians’ wish to meet Madise and hear her views was understandable. Although she is unlikely to be entirely unknown to them, Arras said it would be useful to hear her positions on foreign policy, security, domestic issues and family policy.

Arras said Tiit Land’s candidacy could serve the opposition’s aim of ensuring that the election reaches the electoral college. Parliamentary elections are six months away, and the opposition has an interest in establishing a narrative that supports it ahead of that vote, she said.

“The will to reach an agreement in the Riigikogu exists today, but realistically it seems that the process will ultimately reach the electoral college,” Arras said.

She added that further candidates could still emerge because the window for submitting nominations is relatively short. New names could be put forward once it becomes clear that parliament cannot elect a president.

Arras also said a presidential debate should focus on substance rather than confrontation. She said the national broadcaster could organise a discussion in which candidates receive equal speaking time and address foreign policy, economic policy and other issues.