Minority government likely to last until elections, analyst says

Estonia’s political situation is stable and the minority government will probably remain in office until the next regular elections, political scientist Tõnis Saarts told ERR.

Saarts said there could be further departures from the coalition, but the opposition had little incentive to take power just before the elections.

“A no-confidence vote against the prime minister may take place, but the opposition does not want to form its own government before the elections,” Saarts said.

Minority governments have existed in Estonia before and do not mean the country is left without a functioning government, he said. Government parties would simply need to work more closely with an opposition party on certain bills and secure its support.

The 101-member Riigikogu also includes numerous independent lawmakers, some of whom are affiliated with political parties and others less firmly so. This gives the government room to negotiate, Saarts said.

Minority governments have also been normal in Scandinavian countries in previous years, he added. A government can function if the prime minister is able to reach agreements and compromises with the opposition on critical decisions.

Saarts said it was still too early to assess the impact of the situation on the presidential election. He said this would depend on whether the lawmakers who left had reached an agreement with opposition parties not to support the coalition’s candidate.

“The situation is not catastrophic and the government will not collapse tomorrow. No one has an interest in bringing down the government or taking power immediately before the elections,” Saarts said. He added that the minority government would have fewer opportunities to implement its policies, while the opposition could use the situation to show that the government was incapable of governing.

The departures of Riigikogu members Kalev Stoicescu from Eesti 200 and Meelis Kiili from the Reform Party leave the governing alliance with 50 votes in the 101-member parliament. Stoicescu announced his departure on Sunday and Kiili on Monday.

Estonia last had a minority government in 2009, when Prime Minister Andrus Ansip’s government dismissed the Social Democrats. The Reform Party and IRL then continued as a two-party government until the 2011 Riigikogu elections.