Stoicescu departure leaves Estonia’s ruling coalition with one-seat majority

Kalev Stoicescu’s departure from the Eesti 200 party has left Estonia’s ruling coalition with a one-seat majority in the 101-member Riigikogu, ERR reported. The Reform Party and Eesti 200 can now rely on 51 votes between them.

The Reform Party faction has 37 members. Since the last parliamentary elections, former EKRE member Alar Laneman and former Centre Party member Maria Jufereva-Skuratovski have joined the party, bringing its total to 39 MPs.

Eesti 200 won 14 seats in the last elections. After Züleyxa Izmailova left the party to join the Social Democratic Party, and Stoicescu’s departure, Eesti 200 now has 12 MPs.

The coalition’s narrow majority is expected to make decision-making more difficult and will require strict discipline, particularly during the state budget vote.

Several opposition politicians have said that more MPs could leave the ruling parties before the next elections, which could result in a minority government. They have suggested that some lawmakers who want to remain in politics may leave because the ruling parties’ current support levels may not be enough to secure them seats in the next Riigikogu. Reform Party leader Kristen Michal and Eesti 200 leader Kristina Kallas firmly rejected those claims before Stoicescu announced his departure.

Kallas said on Sunday that Stoicescu’s decision had come as a surprise. Stoicescu said he intended to stand in the next parliamentary elections and had already received offers to join other parties.

ERR was told that Stoicescu is most likely to join Parempoolsed, a party currently outside parliament, before the elections. Polling by Emor, Norstat and Turu-uuringud currently puts the party’s support at between 6 and 7 percent. Parempoolsed has lacked well-known candidates, and Stoicescu’s possible membership could help the party.

The next parliamentary elections are scheduled for March 7, 2027, seven months away.

Stoicescu’s departure could also affect the balance on parliamentary committees, particularly the National Defence Committee, which he currently chairs. The committee has 11 members and, before his departure from Eesti 200, the coalition held a narrow six-member majority there.

Prime Minister Kristen Michal indicated to Postimees that Stoicescu could continue as committee chair and vote with the coalition on important issues. However, if Stoicescu joins Parempoolsed or an opposition party currently represented in parliament, the coalition cannot be certain that he would support it on issues such as the state budget, given those parties’ strong criticism of the ruling parties.

Another question is how Stoicescu will vote in the presidential election after leaving Eesti 200. On July 23, he wrote on social media that he would vote for Ülle Madise if she agreed to stand. There is no reason to assume that he would change his position if Madise were nominated. Electing a president in the Riigikogu requires at least 68 votes.