Experts say Estonia’s parliament is late finding presidential candidates

Estonia’s preparations for the presidential election are running behind schedule, with only one party having so far put forward a candidate from its own ranks, ERR reported. Potential candidates have not started nationwide campaigns aimed at winning support from the electoral college.

Political scientist Tõnis Saarts said politicians have usually begun searching for candidates as early as possible when the incumbent president is not seeking another term.

“It has generally been clear that the election will probably go to the electoral college, which is why presidential candidates have actively toured municipalities in July and August to seek support from electoral college members,” Saarts said.

In 2016, Allar Jõks and Eiki Nestor announced their willingness to run in May, while Marina Kaljurand and Siim Kallas did so in April. Mailis Reps was selected as the Centre Party’s candidate in June. Other candidates also campaigned across Estonia to varying degrees.

Sociologist Juhan Kivirähk said the parties needed to avoid a repeat of the previous election, when the process ultimately moved to the electoral college after the parliament failed to elect a president.

“If everyone again has their own candidate, nothing will come of this election. We remember that the process even broke down in the electoral college, and Kersti Kaljulaid was then found in a hurry,” Kivirähk said.

At present, only EKRE candidate Mart Helme is introducing himself at public gatherings. Saarts said the parties were late in finding candidates because they did not want to nominate people with clear party backgrounds.

“The coalition feels that its support is not sufficient to put forward its own candidate, as in the case of the Reform Party. Instead, they are leaning towards a compromise candidate, while the opposition apparently did not have a good candidate behind whom to mobilise its strength,” Saarts said.

Saarts added that parties were also avoiding major risks before the parliamentary elections. A presidential campaign could bring success, but it could also end in defeat.

In 2006, parliamentary elections also followed the presidential election. After the parliamentary rounds failed, Arnold Rüütel and Toomas Hendrik Ilves campaigned extensively before the electoral college vote. Ilves won the presidency by one vote above the required minimum, and Kivirähk said the confrontation continued into the following parliamentary elections.

Saarts said the outcome of the presidential election in parliament would depend on Isamaa’s strategy. If Isamaa wanted to demonstrate the weakness of the coalition and the Social Democrats, the election would move to the electoral college.

“That does not mean Isamaa would ultimately fail to support the candidate it would have backed in parliament. It would simply be accompanied by political rhetoric and the spectacle of the political game,” Saarts said.

In 2021, the presidential election was decided entirely in parliament, despite expectations beforehand that the electoral college would be needed. The Reform Party and the Centre Party cooperated, and Alar Karis was elected president in the second round.