Kaldre warns of a new axis of evil

Russia, North Korea, Iran and China have formed a dangerous partnership that could quickly turn their military agreements into coordinated action, ERR opinion journalist Peeter Kaldre writes.

In 1983, US President Ronald Reagan called the Soviet Union an “evil empire”. In 2002, President George W. Bush referred to an “axis of evil” consisting of Iran, Iraq and North Korea, saying the countries supported international terrorism.

Kaldre argues that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 revealed a new axis of evil, more dangerous than all previous empires and axes combined. He notes that Germany, Italy and Japan were allied as the Axis powers during the Second World War, but never carried out a joint military operation. Japan did not even inform Germany about its attack on Pearl Harbor.

Hostility towards the West

Russia, North Korea, Iran and China have little in common ideologically, Kaldre writes, apart from their hostility towards Western values and the West as a whole.

He says hostility is one of the main forces driving international relations. Three of the four countries have nuclear weapons, while the fourth is pursuing them, he writes.

Kaldre says the four countries have been involved in many dangerous events. For him, the most important is the war in Ukraine, which Russia would probably not have been able to continue for so long without their cooperation.

China’s role has been more concealed, focusing mainly on buying oil and gas from Russia and smuggling dual-use technology to the country, he writes.

North Korea and Iran have played a more open role. North Korea has sent soldiers to fight Ukrainians, with estimates ranging from 12,000 to 15,000. Ukrainian intelligence now has information that another 30,000 North Korean soldiers could be sent, Kaldre writes.

According to South Korean intelligence, North Korea has sent almost five million artillery shells to Russia, as well as missiles and launch systems. In an attack on Ukraine at the end of July, a North Korean ballistic missile struck a residential building near Kryvyi Rih, killing an entire large family, he writes.

The number of civilians killed by Iran-made Shahed-type drones has not been counted, Kaldre says, but the drones have terrorised people for years.

It could soon be too late

The fact that the four countries have not formally described their relationship as an “axis” does not make them less dangerous, Kaldre writes, referring to a July 1 article in Foreign Affairs. The countries have military agreements with one another that could be activated quickly.

Their cooperation has also been reciprocal. In exchange for shells and missiles, Russia has shared space technology with North Korea, Kaldre writes. He also says Russian space intelligence allegedly helped Iran when it attacked US targets in the Middle East.

If they choose to do so, the four countries could create flashpoints in different parts of the world at the same time. The United States would not be able to respond everywhere simultaneously, Kaldre writes.

He says the existence of an “axis of evil” raises the question of where an “axis of good” can be found. NATO might be considered that axis, he writes, but current US foreign policy is characterised more by disputes with its allies than by effective measures to fight the axis of evil.