Southern Europe fire smoke reaches Estonia as super El Niño strengthens

Smoke from wildfires in southern Europe is once again reaching Estonia, although it has not significantly worsened air quality, ERR reported. A developing super El Niño in the Pacific could begin influencing global weather in the coming months, but its effects are expected to reach Estonia later.

Taimi Paljak, lead synoptician at the Environment Agency, said polluted air reached Estonia in the final days of July because of wildfires in southern Europe. Concentrations were clearly lower than over western and central Europe’s northern areas.

Polluted air was moving over Estonia again on Tuesday, Paljak said, adding that concentrations remained relatively low. Visibility was nevertheless reduced.

Erik Teinemaa, head of the air quality and climate department at the Estonian Environmental Research Centre, said the pollution had not significantly affected the quality of the air people were breathing. The particles were moving through higher layers of the atmosphere and had not reached ground level. They may, however, have affected the formation of raindrops.

Particles from fires can harm health if they enter the air people breathe and reach high concentrations. They are not usually directly toxic, but prolonged exposure to smoke particles can damage health.

Super El Niño developing

An exceptionally strong El Niño is also gaining strength in the equatorial Pacific and could substantially raise the planet’s average air temperature in the coming months. Paljak said it was being described as a super El Niño.

Such very strong El Niño events are uncommon and occur roughly once every 20 years, Paljak said. El Niño is primarily a phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean. During the event, trade winds weaken, strengthening the equatorial countercurrent.

Normally, strong trade winds carry warm surface water from the coast of South America towards Oceania and Australia. Cold, nutrient-rich water then rises from deeper layers. Although this water is cooler, it creates favourable conditions for fish because it contains abundant nutrients.

When El Niño strengthens, conditions change. The waters near the South American coast and the equator become warm and humid, which is less favourable for fish, Paljak said.

El Niño also affects Australia, where the east coast becomes warmer and drier than usual. Forecasts indicate that spring there will be considerably drier and warmer than normal.

Its effects are expected to reach the Northern Hemisphere, including northern Europe, only in about six months. Previous strong El Niño periods have not brought consistent weather to Estonia, so they cannot provide a reliable indication of what winter lies ahead.

The link is somewhat clearer for summer weather. Summers in Estonia following previous very strong El Niño years have tended to be cooler and wetter. Experts nevertheless stress that this cannot reliably predict next year’s weather, and it is too early to say that the summer of 2027 will definitely be cool or rainy.

For the rest of this summer, Paljak said Estonia can expect thunderstorms in August, as well as some heavier-than-usual showers.